North America Ocean Freight Market Update May 2024

Container Shipping and Freight Rates

The container shipping market is experiencing strong demand, particularly on Asia outbound routes, driven by equipment shortages and increased load factors. A significant annual fleet growth rate of 9.6% is anticipated, with new vessel deliveries and diversions to the Cape of Good Hope absorbing available supply.

Regulatory changes, such as the EU's customs pre-arrival safety system and environmental regulations, will also shape the market landscape.

Schedule Reliability

Improved Reliability: Global schedule reliability improved by 1.6 percentage points to 54.6%, as the routing via the Cape of Good Hope normalized.

Port Congestion: While the port congestion situation remained unchanged, there has been a steady decline over recent months.

Carrier Alliances

Alliance Structures: Major ocean carrier alliances include THE Alliance, Ocean Alliance, and the 2M Alliance. Notably, the 2M Alliance between Maersk Line and MSC is set to be discontinued in 2025.

GDP Growth and Bunker Prices

Regional GDP Growth Projections: The projections for 2024-2028 indicate varying growth rates, with Asia Pacific expected to grow at 4.0% CAGR, Europe at 1.8%, and North America at 2.0%.

Bunker Prices: The IFO 380 and VLSFO bunker prices are tracked, with recent trends showing fluctuations impacting operational costs.

Economic growth is likely to decelerate in 2024 as the effects of monetary policy take a broader toll and post-pandemic tailwinds fade.